The Importance of Rolling Forecasts in Chaotic Market Conditions

July 18, 2024 | Pro Tips & Solutions | Daniel Potočnik

Traditional budgeting methods often fall short in today’s fast-paced and unpredictable market environment. The supply of raw materials and products, along with their prices, can change chaotically, making accurate forecasting more important than ever. This is where rolling forecasts come into play. By adopting rolling forecasts instead of traditional budgeting, businesses can increase their accuracy and agility, allowing them to make quick responses to market conditions and time-sensitive decisions.

Understanding Rolling Forecasts

Rolling forecasts are a dynamic approach to financial planning that provides continuous updates based on real-time data. Unlike traditional budgeting, which is usually set annually, rolling forecasts are updated regularly, often monthly or quarterly. This allows businesses to adjust their plans and expectations as new information becomes available.

Benefits of Rolling Forecasts

  1. Enhanced Accuracy: Traditional budgets are often based on historical data and assumptions made at the beginning of the fiscal year. As the year progresses, these assumptions can become outdated, leading to inaccuracies. On the other hand, rolling forecasts are continuously updated, ensuring that forecasts remain relevant and accurate.
  2. Improved Agility: Responding quickly is crucial in a rapidly changing market. Rolling forecasts enable businesses to adjust their strategies in real-time, providing the flexibility needed to navigate volatile conditions.
  3. Better Decision Making: With up-to-date information, decision-makers can make more informed choices. Rolling forecasts provide a clear view of the current financial situation, helping businesses to allocate resources more effectively and prioritize their actions.
  4. Reduced Risk of Accumulating Mistakes: Traditional budgets can accumulate errors over time as market conditions change. Rolling forecasts allow for continuous correction and adjustment, reducing the risk of significant financial discrepancies.

Implementing Rolling Forecasts

To implement them effectively, businesses should:

  • Leverage Technology: Use advanced forecasting tools and software to handle real-time data and provide accurate projections.
  • Involve Key Stakeholders: Engage various departments in forecasting to gather comprehensive insights and ensure alignment with overall business goals.
  • Regularly Review and Update: Regularly review and update forecasts, incorporating the latest market data and internal performance metrics.
  • Focus on Key Drivers: Identify and monitor your business’s key drivers that significantly impact financial performance.

Strategies for Rolling Forecasts: Target-Based and Trend-Based Approaches

Businesses can adopt different strategies when implementing rolling forecasts based on their specific needs and goals. Two common approaches are “Following the Target (Hold the Annual Total)” and “Following the Trend (Hold the To-Year).”

Following the Target (Hold the Annual Total)

This approach focuses on achieving the annual financial goals set by the business. The rolling forecast ensures that the company stays on track to meet these targets, adjusting strategies as needed to address any variances from the plan. Key aspects include:

  • Setting Annual Goals: Establish clear financial targets based on strategic priorities for the year.
  • Monitoring Progress: Regularly compare actual performance against the annual targets to identify gaps and opportunities.
  • Adjusting Strategies: Modify business strategies and resource allocations to align with the annual goals.

Following the Trend (Hold the To-Year)

In contrast, this approach focuses on maintaining the business trajectory based on current performance and market conditions. The rolling forecast extends the latest trends forward, ensuring the business adapts to ongoing changes. Key aspects include:

  • Trend Analysis: Continuously analyze the market and internal performance trends to understand the direction of the business.
  • Forecast Extension: Extend these trends into the future, updating the rolling forecast to reflect the latest data.
  • Responsive Adjustments: Make agile adjustments to plans and strategies based on the latest trends to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate risks.

Conclusion

In conclusion, rolling forecasts offer a significant advantage over traditional budgeting methods in today’s unpredictable market. By increasing accuracy and agility, businesses can respond more effectively to changing conditions, make better-informed decisions, and ultimately achieve greater financial stability.

DEMO: Creating a Rolling Forecast

Watch the demo below for a practical demonstration of creating a rolling forecast. This way, you can turn unpredictability into an opportunity for strategic advantage, ensuring your business remains resilient and proactive in the face of change.

Watch the Demo:


Ready for the next step?

Our team of experts is here to answer your questions and discuss how we can boost your operational efficiency by merging rich tradition with a progressive mindset.